The consulting industry’s foundational staffing model — a small number of partners supported by large cohorts of junior analysts — is facing its most serious structural challenge in decades. But the narrative that AI is “dismantling” the pyramid overstates the pace and understates the complexity of what is actually happening.
Nick Pye, managing partner at Mangrove Consulting, argued in Consultancy.uk this month that the traditional pyramid is “becoming increasingly difficult to justify.” His core thesis is straightforward: AI can now perform the analytical heavy lifting — research, financial modelling, scenario analysis — that once required rooms of graduates billing at premium rates. Clients are noticing. They want senior judgement, not junior analysis. And they increasingly have their own data capabilities, reducing dependence on external advisers for the work that used to fill the pyramid’s base.
The argument is sound in principle. Where it risks overreach is in assuming the transition is further along than the evidence suggests.
The data tells a more complicated story
If AI were genuinely dismantling the consulting pyramid, one would expect to see mass reductions in headcount at the bottom. The picture is more mixed than that.
As maddaisy reported in February, Capgemini ended 2025 with 423,400 employees — up 24% year-on-year — after adding 82,300 offshore workers in a single year. The company simultaneously announced €700 million in restructuring charges. It is not shrinking. It is reshuffling: eliminating some roles while creating others, primarily in AI engineering, data science, and agentic AI delivery.
McKinsey, meanwhile, has begun testing new recruits on AI capabilities, and more than half of graduate roles now reportedly require AI skills. The Big Four have reduced student intakes, but the UK consulting market’s difficulties in 2025 — its worst year since lockdown — owe as much to broader demand softness as to structural AI disruption.
And the technology itself is not yet delivering at the scale the hype implies. Eden McCallum research published this year found that while excitement for generative AI remains high, revenue impact remains minimal. Ninety-five per cent of AI pilots have failed to deliver returns, according to industry data cited by Consultancy.uk. That is not a technology that has already displaced the analyst class.
What is genuinely changing
None of this means the pyramid is safe. The direction of travel is clear, even if the pace is slower than the most breathless accounts suggest.
Three shifts are converging. First, clients increasingly own and understand their own data. The analytical monopoly that consulting firms once held — gathering, processing, and synthesising information that clients could not access themselves — has eroded as organisations have built internal data teams and deployed their own AI tools.
Second, the economics of the base are deteriorating. When an AI system can produce a comparable market analysis in minutes rather than weeks, it becomes progressively harder to justify billing rates for the same work performed by junior staff. This does not eliminate the need for human analysis, but it compresses the time and headcount required.
Third, client expectations have shifted from deliverables to outcomes. As Pye puts it: clients want “decisions and performance,” not “decks and processes.” That shift favours experienced practitioners who can navigate organisational politics and drive implementation — not the analysts who assemble the slides.
The diamond, the inverted pyramid, and the graduate question
The replacement models being discussed are instructive. The most conservative is the “diamond” — wider in the middle, thinner at the base, with fewer entry-level analysts but more mid-level orchestration roles. It preserves hierarchy while acknowledging that the bottom of the pyramid has less to do.
The more radical option is what Pye calls “flipping the pyramid”: small teams of senior and mid-level consultants tackling specific challenges, supported by AI systems rather than junior staff. Boutique consultancies have operated variations of this model for years. What AI changes is the scale at which it becomes viable.
But neither model addresses the question that should concern the industry most: if junior roles contract, where do future senior consultants come from?
The traditional pyramid functioned as a training pipeline. Graduates entered, learned the craft through years of analytical work, and developed into the experienced practitioners clients now prize. Close that entry point, and the industry faces a slow-motion skills crisis — a generation of senior consultants with no successors trained in the discipline.
Pye’s answer is that consulting firms will increasingly recruit mid-career professionals who have already developed sector expertise elsewhere. The career path inverts: specialise first in an industry, then move into consulting.
This is plausible but raises its own problems. The consulting skill set — structured problem solving, client management, the ability to diagnose organisational dysfunction — is not the same as industry expertise. A decade in financial services does not automatically produce someone who can run a transformation programme. The two capabilities overlap, but they are not identical.
The real risk is not speed — it is the talent pipeline
The firms that are moving fastest on AI are not necessarily the ones best positioned for the long term. Accenture is tracking AI logins for promotion decisions. OpenAI has formed alliances with McKinsey, BCG, Accenture, and Capgemini to deploy its enterprise AI platform. Capgemini’s CEO is counselling patience, arguing that deploying AI ahead of organisational readiness wastes both money and credibility.
Each response reflects a different bet on how quickly the pyramid will change — and how to navigate the transition without breaking the firm’s ability to develop talent.
The consulting industry is not being dismantled by AI. It is being redesigned, unevenly, firm by firm, with no consensus on the target operating model. The firms that get the balance right — reducing the base without severing the pipeline that produces tomorrow’s senior partners — will define what the industry looks like in a decade. The ones that treat this as a simple cost-cutting exercise will find, in five years, that they have cut too deep in exactly the wrong place.